The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its forecast for India’s GDP growth in FY2026–27 to 6.9%, up from its earlier estimate of 6.5%, attributing the upgrade to stronger domestic consumption and lower tariffs imposed by the United States. At the same time, the ADB cautioned that the ongoing conflict in West Asia poses a key risk to the outlook.
In its Asian Development Outlook April 2026 released on Friday, the ADB projected that India’s growth will further accelerate to 7.3% in FY2027–28. It also forecast that inflation will edge up to 4.5% in the current fiscal year, driven by higher food and energy prices.
The ADB’s revision follows closely on the heels of last week’s update from the World Bank. On Wednesday, the World Bank raised its growth estimate for India in FY2026–27 by 30 basis points to 6.6%, supported in part by ongoing free trade agreements (FTAs), although it noted that the West Asia crisis continues to be a source of risk.
The ADB’s projections are broadly aligned with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) forecast of 6.9% GDP growth for FY2026–27, with first-quarter growth in that fiscal year expected to come in at 6.8%.
