The New Zealand dollar held on to its recent gains on Tuesday, trading around $0.586—its highest level in more than three weeks—supported by expectations that US–Iran talks could resume after unsuccessful discussions over the weekend in Pakistan. President Donald Trump said Iran had called about making a deal, even as a US blockade of Iranian ports came into force. Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran is prepared to continue negotiations within the framework of international law.
On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its cash rate unchanged last week but signaled it is ready to tighten policy if core inflation picks up, particularly amid rising fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Governor Anna Breman indicated that if medium-term inflation shows signs of accelerating, the central bank will respond decisively with rate increases. In interest-rate markets, traders are assigning a 38% probability to a hike in May, with a move by July now fully priced in.
