Soybean futures hovered around $11.60 per bushel, retreating from a four-week high as renewed hopes for progress in resolving the US–Iran conflict pressured crude oil prices and dampened biofuel demand. Both the US and Iran signaled a willingness to resume negotiations aimed at extending a fragile ceasefire, easing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting decline in crude oil prices reduced support for vegetable oils, which are closely tied to energy markets through biodiesel usage.
At the same time, the USDA’s April report outlined a largely balanced outlook, with stronger domestic demand offsetting weaker export prospects. The soybean crush estimate was raised to a record 2.61 billion bushels, the fifth consecutive annual high, but this increase was fully countered by a reduction in exports to 1.54 billion bushels amid intensified competition from South America. Consequently, US ending stocks were unchanged at 350 million bushels, matching market expectations. On the global front, stock levels edged slightly lower, while production estimates for Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged.
