Cocoa futures climbed above $3,500 per tonne, the highest level since mid-February, bolstered by a weaker US dollar and spillover effects from ongoing geopolitical tensions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is weighing on the cocoa market by disrupting fertilizer supply chains and driving up global shipping costs, insurance premiums, and fuel prices, thereby increasing production and import costs.
Nonetheless, market fundamentals remain under pressure due to expectations of ample supply from West Africa and muted demand. Recent data showed ICE cocoa inventories rising to a 19.5‑month high of 2,610,453 bags as of April 13. At the same time, port arrivals in top producer Ivory Coast increased by 0.7% to 1.462 million metric tons as of April 12, since the start of the season on October 1.
Market participants are now focused on the release of first‑quarter grinding data for Europe, Asia, and North America, scheduled for April 16, which are expected to confirm weak global demand.
