The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 1.1%, up from its January estimate of 0.8%. The revision reflects higher oil and other commodity prices driven by the crisis in the Middle East. The new 1.1% forecast for 2026 is slightly above the 1% expansion projected for 2025.
Russia’s economy is expected to slow sharply in 2025 to around 1% growth, from 4.9% in 2024, weighed down by tight monetary policy from the central bank and Western sanctions. Additional pressure comes from elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine.
Despite the upward revision, the IMF’s 2026 forecast remains below the Russian Economic Development Ministry’s current projection of 1.3%, which the ministry has indicated it plans to lower. The IMF estimate, however, is still within the Central Bank of Russia’s February forecast range of 0.5%–1.5%.
