FX.co ★ Wheat Rallies on Weather, Fertilizer Concerns

Wheat futures hovered near $6 per bushel, close to a fourteen-month high and poised for a weekly gain of about 5%—the strongest advance in nearly two months—as ongoing weather threats and fertilizer shortages linked to the Iran conflict heightened supply concerns. Drought conditions are expected to persist across the US Great Plains, particularly in hard red winter wheat areas, while dryness in parts of the Black Sea region and Europe continues to pressure yield prospects. In Australia, constrained access to farm inputs and continued dry weather are projected to push planted area to multi-year lows, raising alarms for one of the world’s key exporters. Fertilizer supply disruptions stemming from tensions involving the US and Iran are adding further support to prices, especially with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed. Although ample global inventories may cap further gains, production risks in Australia and Argentina could provide additional upside. Meanwhile, US wheat export sales totaled 231,300 metric tons for the week ended April 9, in line with expectations.