Rice futures hovered around $11 per hundredweight, near a two-week high, as geopolitical tensions continued to disrupt supply chains. This marks a pause in a protracted downtrend that began in 2024, during which prices had approached decade lows on expectations of abundant global supply. Overall stock levels remain comfortable, with global production projected to reach a record 563 million tons in the 2025/26 season.
India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has returned to near full-capacity shipments after exporting approximately 21.5 million tons in 2025. Even so, major producing countries are contending with rising fuel and fertilizer costs amid disruptions to key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, affected by conflict in the Middle East. Rice—particularly basmati—depends heavily on long-distance maritime transport, leaving it acutely exposed to higher freight and insurance costs.
In Thailand, market conditions have been further tightened by an extended dry season, which has reduced yields and constrained supplies from the current crop.
