FX.co ★ Treasury Yields Edge Slightly Lower

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.31%, trimming earlier gains, as traders remained focused on developments in the Middle East. According to Al Jazeera, government sources suggested a “high likelihood of a breakthrough” in US–Iran talks in Islamabad, with a delegation led by Iran’s foreign minister expected to arrive in the Pakistani capital tonight. In a separate development, US President Trump announced a three-week extension of the ceasefire in Lebanon, which had been set to expire on Sunday. Even so, the benchmark yield is up about 7 basis points for the week, as the ongoing stalemate in US–Iran negotiations and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to support higher oil prices and intensify inflationary pressures, leading traders to reassess the interest rate outlook. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged next week, with no additional rate moves projected for the rest of the year.