FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Decline

The US 10-year Treasury yield held below 4.45% on Friday after falling in the previous session, as easing oil prices and a new batch of economic data led investors to reassess the outlook for interest rates. Crude oil pulled back in what appeared to be a technical correction, though it remains on track for a second straight weekly gain amid dimming prospects for a US–Iran peace agreement and expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed in the near term. Treasury yields have been drifting higher since the Middle East conflict began, reflecting concerns that persistently high energy prices could rekindle inflation and compel major central banks to maintain higher-for-longer interest rates or even tighten policy further. On the data front, recent figures showed a slowdown in US consumer spending in the first quarter, while robust investment linked to artificial intelligence helped support a 2% annualized pace of GDP growth.