Cocoa futures fell toward $4,220 per tonne, retreating from a 3.5‑month high of $4,709 per tonne reached on May 11, as forecasts pointed to increased cocoa deliveries from the Ivory Coast. The world’s largest producer now expects cocoa output of 2.2 MMT for the 2025/26 season, up from a previous estimate of 1.8–1.9 MMT, citing favorable weather conditions.
However, the outlook remains uncertain amid worries over fertilizer shortages and the potential impact of El Niño on West African crops. Irregular rainfall in the Ivory Coast has once again unsettled the global cocoa market. Farmers in key producing regions are increasingly concerned that the mid‑season crop could be smaller and of lower quality just as the harvest enters a critical stage.
At the same time, early surveys for the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop indicate below‑average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, pointing to a weak outlook for the main harvest, which is scheduled to begin in October.
