The National Bank of Romania kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% in May 2026, in line with expectations, pointing to elevated uncertainty stemming from energy markets, fiscal consolidation, and geopolitical tensions. In April 2026, annual inflation accelerated to 10.71%, up from 9.9% in March, driven by higher gas, fuel, and regulated prices, as well as rising oil prices, adverse base effects, and increased rents for state-owned housing. HICP inflation also rose, reaching 9.5%.
Looking ahead, inflation is projected to climb further in Q2 2026 amid renewed energy shocks, before easing later in the year and gradually converging toward the target in 2027, on the assumption that weaker demand and fiscal tightening continue to support disinflation.
