The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model has revised its estimate for U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of 2026 down to 3.0%, from a previous projection of 3.8%. The latest reading, updated on June 1, 2026, suggests a moderation in the pace of expansion compared with earlier expectations.
While the new 3.0% estimate still points to solid real GDP growth, the downgrade signals that incoming data for the quarter have been somewhat softer than initially anticipated. The shift in the GDPNow tracker will likely draw attention from market participants and policymakers, who closely watch the high-frequency model for clues on the underlying strength of the U.S. economy through the second quarter of 2026.
