New Zealand’s Terms of Trade Index fell by 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, marking a notable reversal from the 3.7% increase recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The latest data, updated on 2 June 2026, highlights a weakening in the country’s trade position on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
The comparison shows that while the final quarter of 2025 brought a solid improvement—reflecting stronger export prices relative to import prices—the first quarter of 2026 saw those gains partially unwind. In quarter-over-quarter terms, the “actual” Q1 2026 reading of -2.0% contrasts sharply with the “previous” Q4 2025 change of +3.7%, indicating a less favorable balance between what New Zealand earns for its exports and pays for imports.
The shift underscores increased volatility in New Zealand’s external trade conditions, with the latest quarter eroding some of the positive momentum built up at the end of 2025. Investors and policymakers will be monitoring subsequent releases to see whether the Q1 downturn marks the start of a weaker trend or a temporary correction following the strong prior-quarter performance.
