FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Firm

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held near 4.48% on Thursday after rising in the previous session, as stronger-than-expected labor market data bolstered expectations of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy stance. Wednesday’s ADP report showed private-sector employment increasing by 122K in May, surpassing forecasts and marking the highest monthly gain since January 2025. Earlier in the week, JOLTS figures revealed that job openings climbed in April to their highest level since November 2024. Investors are now focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for additional insight into the labor market’s strength. Treasury yields also drew support from mounting tensions in the Middle East, which have kept oil prices elevated and intensified inflationary pressures. Futures markets now imply an 85% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate hike by year-end, up from 60% just a week earlier.