Crude oil prices fluctuated around $90 per barrel on Thursday as traders weighed heightened geopolitical risks against the continued smooth functioning of global supply. President Donald Trump warned that the US could launch additional strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, including the Kharg Island export terminal, but simultaneously indicated a limited appetite for major escalation. In a potentially moderating development, the UAE and Iran held rare direct talks, bolstering hopes for diplomatic de-escalation in the region.
Thus far, oil production and export facilities have been largely untouched, averting the severe supply disruption many market participants had anticipated and keeping prices well below earlier conflict-driven highs. On the demand side, Chinese crude imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to decline in July, even as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased. At the same time, inventories are tightening in key hubs: US crude stockpiles, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have fallen sharply in recent weeks, while fuel inventories in Singapore are at their lowest levels since 2013.
