Copper futures climbed back above $6.50 per pound on Monday, moving closer to record highs as risk appetite improved following reports that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The accompanying drop in oil prices to a two-month low eased concerns over renewed inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy, both of which had been weighing on demand expectations for industrial metals.
Beyond the immediate macro backdrop, copper prices continued to draw support from structural demand drivers linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and the global energy transition, as well as uncertainty surrounding potential new US import tariffs. Jefferies forecasts that elevated copper prices will persist for longer than previously anticipated, citing an average annual supply shortfall of 491,000 tons through 2030 and a slower-than-expected recovery at the Grasberg mine.
