Aluminum futures in the UK fell to about $3,320 in early Asian trading, their lowest level since March 27, amid expectations that metal exports from the Persian Gulf could resume following progress in US–Iran negotiations. After their first round of high-level talks, the two countries agreed on a roadmap toward a final deal, fueling hopes that supplies from the Middle East—responsible for roughly 9% of global output—will return to the market.
Nonetheless, uncertainty persists, as major Gulf producers are still grappling with operational disruptions linked to earlier Iranian attacks. Further downward pressure on prices stems from rising production in China, the world’s largest aluminum producer, as well as increased output from smelters in Indonesia.
On the demand side, weak economic data from China has heightened concerns, given the country’s role as one of the biggest consumers of aluminum. At the same time, a stronger US dollar is weighing on prices by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
