France’s 10-year OAT yield climbed to 3.65%, its highest level since June 11, as investors reacted to rising political uncertainty and higher oil prices. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has been cleared to run in the 2027 presidential election, but she will be required to wear an electronic bracelet for one year—a condition she has indicated could prompt her to withdraw. Polls continue to show the National Rally as the frontrunner, with its candidate widely expected to reach the second-round runoff, while uncertainty lingers over who will emerge as the main challenger in the post-Macron era, as President Emmanuel Macron has yet to anoint a clear successor.
At the same time, crude oil rose above $72 per barrel after attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the ECB may keep interest rates higher for longer. ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel also cautioned that the economic fallout from the Iran conflict remains substantial, with core inflation still running at elevated levels.
