The National Bank of Romania left its key policy rate unchanged at 6.5% in June 2026, in line with expectations, citing persistent uncertainty and elevated geopolitical risks. Headline inflation climbed to 10.85% in May, its highest level since April 2023, driven primarily by rising natural gas and fuel prices, as well as higher rents for state-owned housing.
Economic activity is estimated to have contracted by 1.2% in Q1 2026, following a modest 0.2% expansion in Q4 2025, as household consumption weakened and investment growth decelerated. Looking ahead, the outlook remains closely tied to developments in the Middle East, although a mild recovery in economic activity is anticipated in Q2, supported by shifts in aggregate demand and key sectors.
Inflation is projected to ease significantly in Q3 2026, particularly after the removal of the electricity price cap. Future policy decisions will remain focused on preserving price stability while fostering conditions for sustainable economic growth.
