The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note slipped to 4.59% on Wednesday after a weaker-than-expected producer price report offered fresh evidence of easing inflationary pressures. Producer prices unexpectedly declined 0.3% in June, versus expectations for no change, and both the annual headline and core readings also came in below forecasts.
The data followed Tuesday’s softer CPI print, reinforcing signs that inflation is moderating. However, mounting tensions in the Middle East and the recent increase in oil prices continue to pose upside risks to the inflation outlook.
In testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Warsh reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to restoring price stability but avoided signaling a more hawkish policy stance. Futures markets now imply roughly a 49% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, down from about 70% a week earlier.
