FX.co ★ Gold Falls on Escalating Middle East Conflict

Gold slipped back below $4,000 an ounce on Monday, edging toward a nine-month low as intensifying clashes between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation fears and expectations of further interest rate hikes. The US military reported fresh airstrikes against Iran on Sunday after three American service members were killed, while Tehran announced that its ceasefire with Washington had effectively collapsed and said it intercepted four vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Oil prices have now climbed roughly 30% from their July lows, heightening the risk that central banks will tighten monetary policy to contain inflation. At the same time, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Friday joined a growing chorus of Federal Reserve officials cautioning about stubborn inflation. Futures markets are now assigning about a 53% probability to a Fed rate increase in September, up from 47% just a day earlier.