US gasoline futures rose above $3.40 per gallon, their highest level since May 22, as mounting strikes in the Middle East intensified fears of disruptions to global refined fuel supplies. Iran announced that the ceasefire with the US was effectively over, with both sides expanding attacks beyond military targets to critical infrastructure, further undermining prospects for reviving the fragile truce. At the same time, continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities have hampered refinery operations.
Refiners in the US and other regions have also been shifting output toward higher-margin diesel and jet fuel, cutting gasoline production. According to EIA data, US gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels in the week ending July 10, leaving stockpiles roughly 14 million barrels below their five-year seasonal average and at their lowest level for this time of year since 2012. The tightening market has pushed the US gasoline crack spread to its highest point since June 2022.
