Wheat futures rose to about $6.80 per bushel in late July, returning to their highest level since May 20, 2024, as escalating Black Sea tensions and worsening crop prospects fueled supply concerns. Russia has restricted access to selected ports in the Sea of Azov and the Kavkaz region while continuing strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure, and Ukraine has launched drone attacks on warehouses operated by Wildberries. The renewed tensions have intensified worries over grain shipments through the Black Sea, a key export corridor for two of the world’s largest wheat suppliers.
Prices were further supported after SovEcon cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest by 0.7%, citing weaker yield expectations in southern regions and a reduction in spring wheat acreage. Elsewhere, France’s soft wheat output is projected to fall 7.6% this year following heat-wave damage, while US spring wheat conditions have deteriorated, with the share of the crop rated good to excellent dropping by five percentage points from the previous week.
