The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to 4.67% on Friday, pausing after a four-session climb that had pushed the benchmark rate to its highest level since January 2025. A pullback in oil prices during the session contributed to the modest decline in yields, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained elevated, with US President Trump stating he would soon decide whether to launch a "massive attack" on Iran.
On the data front, flash S&P Global PMIs indicated that US services sector activity strengthened in July, while manufacturing growth lost momentum and price pressures intensified. Investors are now focusing on next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, though markets are currently pricing in roughly a 35% chance of a rate increase. The probability of a hike in September stands at nearly 80%.
