US gasoline futures slipped below $3.45 per gallon after briefly topping a more than two-month high of $3.50 on July 23rd, as renewed optimism over potential US–Iran peace talks weighed on crude oil prices. Reports that Pakistan is seeking to revive negotiations between Washington and Tehran, building on earlier diplomatic efforts led by China, have fueled hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, despite warnings from US President Donald Trump against outside interference.
At the same time, Ukraine has shifted its focus from striking major Russian oil refineries to targeting maritime assets. Nonetheless, fuel supply fears linger after earlier attacks damaged 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.
Overall, geopolitical risks remain heightened, with US–Iran hostilities extending well into a second week. US missile strikes have hit targets across Iran, while President Trump has threatened “major military punishment” against Tehran and its Houthi allies, as the conflict escalates and spreads to a second critical maritime chokepoint.
