New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index jumped to 56.1 in July 2026 from 36.6 in June, its highest level since February. Firms’ own activity outlook improved sharply (49.3 vs 36.9), and assessments of past activity also ticked higher (9.7 vs 9.0), helped by easing oil prices as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to recede.
Forward-looking indicators strengthened across the board. Export intentions rose (26.6 vs 18.1), as did expectations for profits (28.7 vs 13.0), investment (22.8 vs 16.5), and employment (18.1 vs 9.4). At the same time, pricing intentions (47.2 vs 50.7), cost expectations (78.2 vs 84.7), and inflation expectations (3.14% vs 3.36%) all moderated, while wage growth expectations were essentially unchanged (2.52% vs 2.53%).
Credit availability turned positive for the first time in recent months (1.4 vs -1.9). Sectoral sentiment strengthened particularly in construction, with confidence rising in both residential (42.5 vs 25.0) and commercial construction (48.9 vs 28.9).
