FX.co ★ US PCE Prices Likely to Fall for the First Time Since 2020

The US PCE price index is expected to decline by 0.1% month-over-month in June 2026, its first monthly decrease since April 2020, following consecutive 0.4% increases in April and May. A ceasefire between the US and Iran in June helped alleviate energy-related inflationary pressures, contributing to lower gasoline prices. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise 0.2%, the smallest monthly gain in seven months, after a 0.3% increase in May. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation is anticipated to ease to 3.7% from 4.1% in May, when it reached its highest level since April 2023. If realized, the June figure would mark a three-month low. Core PCE inflation is also expected to edge down to 3.3% from 3.4%, with May’s reading having been the highest since October 2023. Even with this anticipated moderation, PCE inflation is projected to remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.