The first week of August will be dominated by the ongoing conflict between Iran and the US, which continues to inject uncertainty into global energy markets and, by extension, inflation prospects. At the same time, volatility in AI-related equities will remain in focus, with investors looking to upcoming results from SpaceX and AMD for direction.
It will be a data-heavy week, led by the US labor market. The nonfarm payrolls report, along with JOLTS job openings and the ADP employment report, will provide fresh insight into employment conditions. Additional indicators, including the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, factory orders, and the trade balance, will offer further clarity on industrial activity and the impact of tariffs.
In Europe, industrial production figures from the largest Eurozone economies will shed light on the effects of elevated energy costs, while Germany is set to publish its trade balance. In China, markets await new PMI readings and the latest trade figures.
Japan will release wage data, a key input for its inflation and monetary policy outlook, and Australia is scheduled to publish a series of industry surveys. Central bank decisions are also on the agenda, with interest rate announcements expected from Brazil and India. Separately, OPEC+ members will meet to review and potentially adjust oil production quotas for the year.
