Wheat prices climbed more than 3% on Wednesday to above $6.50 per bushel, approaching the two-year high of $7.08 reached on July 22, as worries over supply disruptions in the Black Sea region intensified. The rally followed reports that major Ukrainian drone strikes had halted operations at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia’s main Black Sea wheat export hub.
The attacks have renewed concerns about export flows during the peak shipping season for both Russia and Ukraine, as the two countries increasingly target each other’s vessels and logistics infrastructure. Russia’s wheat exports are now projected to drop in August to their lowest level in nearly ten years, while consultancy IKAR has reduced its 2026/27 export forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 44.5 million tonnes. Ukraine has also cut its grain export outlook by up to 12%.
Even so, subdued global demand, lower Russian prices, and the availability of alternative export routes may help cushion the impact on overall world supplies.
