Wheat prices rose more than 2% on Friday to above $6.60 per bushel, pushing weekly gains above 4%—the strongest advance since mid-July. The rally was fueled by escalating concerns over potential disruptions to Black Sea exports amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Russia and Ukraine are pivotal to the global wheat trade, jointly accounting for nearly 30% of projected world wheat exports in the 2026/27 season, leaving prices highly sensitive to any sustained interruption in shipments.
Supply worries intensified after Russia suspended grain loadings at its main ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Operations at all three major terminals in Novorossiysk have been halted following Ukrainian drone strikes earlier in the week. These disruptions could compel Russia to curb exports further this month, tightening global supply. Even so, there were tentative signs of a possible diplomatic opening, with Ukraine reportedly proposing that both sides cease attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea.
