Gold held steady around $4,600 an ounce on Friday and was on track to finish the week largely unchanged, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium later in the global trading day for guidance on the US interest rate outlook. Futures markets currently imply roughly a 65% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its September policy meeting. However, a hotter-than-expected US inflation print has reinforced expectations that the central bank could raise rates before year-end, with the implied probability of a hike by December still above 70%.
At the same time, gold continued to draw support from the so‑called “debasement trade,” amid growing worries about US fiscal sustainability. The US Treasury’s expanded debt buyback program has intensified concerns over a potential US debt crisis and the prospect of further dollar weakness. On the geopolitical front, oil prices remained elevated, as renewed escalations in the Russia‑Ukraine conflict offset tentative signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East.
