The Australian dollar traded around $0.72, hovering near a fifteen-week high and on track for a ninth straight weekly gain, its longest winning streak since 2010, as markets intensified bets on an imminent interest rate hike. Expectations for tighter policy strengthened after July inflation and household spending data surprised to the upside, with consumption rising 1.1% in the month, signaling resilient domestic demand despite elevated borrowing costs.
The robust data led traders to bring forward expectations for the next move by the Reserve Bank of Australia, while several major banks revised their forecasts. NAB now anticipates the cash rate will rise to 4.6% next month, whereas CBA and ANZ still project a November increase but concede that an earlier hike is possible. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a rate rise at the RBA’s September meeting, up sharply from 17%, and a November hike is considered fully priced in. Investors are also focusing on upcoming Q2 GDP and labor market figures for further guidance on the policy outlook.
