Soybean futures rose above $12.80 per bushel, reaching their highest level in nearly three years, after the Trump administration’s latest biofuel policy strengthened expectations for soybean demand. The EPA granted 1.76 billion renewable fuel credits in small-refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year, almost double its earlier estimate. However, the agency plans to shift the gap between projected and actual exemptions into the 2026 and 2027 mandates, effectively preserving the foregone biofuel demand in subsequent years. This approach eased market concerns that expanded refinery waivers would cause a sharp drop in crop demand.
Soybeans are a key feedstock for biodiesel, making biofuel mandates a critical driver of demand. At the same time, ongoing Chinese buying has provided additional support. U.S. exporters have reported multiple sales to China for 2026/27 delivery, including 333,000 metric tons on August 26, following purchases of 488,000 tons on August 3, 238,000 tons on August 7, and 244,000 tons on August 12.
