Brent crude slipped below $105 a barrel on Friday, likely reflecting a technical correction, but remained on course for a strong weekly gain as escalating US–Iran tensions fueled fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies. US officials have reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the conflict could persist through the remainder of his term, while Iranian leaders appear determined to continue the confrontation despite mounting economic costs. Tehran has also claimed to have restored its missile capabilities and may intensify attacks on US and Gulf targets if Washington further escalates.
At the same time, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels a day, its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the group’s output declined by 640,000 bpd in August. The IEA also lowered its outlook for Russian crude production, citing ongoing Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure, reducing its 2026 forecast by 125,000 bpd to 8.7 million bpd.
