The Ibovespa added 0.2% to close at 185,992 on Thursday, after a volatile session driven by the Brazilian Central Bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 25 bps to 13.75%. While the Copom did not provide explicit guidance on its next moves, it kept the possibility of another cut at the upcoming meeting on the table. The overall message emphasized continuity, with monetary policy remaining cautious, data-dependent, and focused on preserving stability.
During the session, however, the index fell as much as 1.2%, weighed down by renewed concerns over fiscal policy and electoral dynamics after the federal government announced a 15% increase in welfare benefits. At the same time, polls showing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead in second-round scenarios continued to lend support to the market.
External conditions also helped: a pause in the recent oil price rally and the resulting moderation in global yields provided additional backing for Brazilian equities. Among heavyweight stocks, major banks were mixed—Banco do Brasil gained 0.3% and Santander advanced 2.5%, while Itaú edged lower and Bradesco slipped 0.3%. In the commodities space, Vale climbed 2.1%, supported by higher iron ore prices.
