Mexico’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% at its September meeting, as widely anticipated by markets. The governing board said it evaluated the inflation outlook in light of exchange-rate movements, the differing positions of the Mexican and US business cycles, the lack of demand-side pressures in Mexico, and the current degree of monetary tightness.
The headline inflation forecast for the third quarter of 2026 was revised down, reflecting lower-than-expected non-core inflation, while the core inflation projection was edged slightly higher. Overall, the balance of risks to the inflation outlook remains skewed to the upside. Ongoing changes in US economic policy and protracted geopolitical conflicts continue to cloud the outlook.
At the same time, the Mexican economy is estimated to have slowed in the third quarter. Slack conditions are expected to persist over the entire forecast horizon, and downside risks to economic activity remain.
