FX.co ★ Rupee Breaches 96 to Two-Month Low

The Indian rupee weakened to about 96.13 per dollar, breaking below the key 96-per-dollar threshold for the first time in two months, as rising US Treasury yields and elevated oil prices intensified pressure on the currency. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose 6 basis points to 5.24%, hovering near a near two-decade high, with higher oil prices stoking worries about persistently high inflation and the prospect of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. Market pricing now implies almost a 70% chance of another Fed increase in October, a sharp jump from under 20% a month earlier, while the dollar index traded close to a two-month peak. Oil prices were also supported by fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East. The breach of the 96 level could prompt the Reserve Bank of India to intensify its intervention, backed by stronger foreign exchange buffers after a recent buildup in reserves from its special forex measures.