UK 10-year gilt yields eased to around 5.4% after briefly reaching their highest level since July 2007, as the recent rally in oil prices stalled and investors paused following a sharp bond sell-off. Yields, however, remain elevated: higher energy costs have intensified inflation concerns, and stronger-than-expected economic growth has reinforced expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer.
Several Bank of England policymakers – including Governor Andrew Bailey and members of the Monetary Policy Committee who voted to keep rates on hold last month – have signaled greater willingness to raise rates, as rising energy prices increase the risk that inflation will remain above target. Markets are now pricing in the possibility that the Bank could begin tightening monetary policy as soon as November. Data from LSEG indicate that investors anticipate four rate hikes by July 2027.
These higher borrowing costs create an additional challenge for the government as it attempts to alleviate cost-of-living pressures ahead of the October 28 budget.
