European natural gas prices rose above €76/MWh on Monday, reaching a two-week high as persistent security risks in the Strait of Hormuz continued to threaten LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf. The strait, which before the war accounted for roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade, has seen a series of attacks on vessels in recent weeks, heightening concerns about the safety and reliability of maritime transport.
Although some LNG cargoes from the Gulf have passed through the strait recently, these flows remain too limited to significantly ease the global supply squeeze. Compounding the tightness, QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison through December, further curbing available supply.
Europe is racing to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter heating season. Gas storage facilities are currently about 72% full, well below the five-year seasonal average of 87%. With stocks trailing historical norms, any prolonged disruption to flows or a colder-than-usual start to winter could tighten the market further and push prices higher.
