Cocoa prices have climbed above $5,600 per tonne, almost doubling from the three-year low of $2,888 recorded on February 27, amid mounting concerns over the upcoming harvest in West Africa. Expectations of a strengthening El Niño are intensifying worries about global supply.
In Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, the national weather agency forecasts below-average rainfall through early 2027. As West Africa accounts for more than half of global cocoa output, this heightens the vulnerability of international supplies to adverse weather in the region.
StoneX Group projects that Ivory Coast’s cocoa production will drop by 11% to 1.8 million tonnes in the 2026–27 season. Ghana, the second-largest producer, also anticipates a decline, with output expected to fall by about 13% to 650,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, estimates indicate that cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports have reached 77,500 tonnes so far since the start of the 2026–27 season.
