US gasoline futures fell to about $3.10 per gallon, a seven-week low, as renewed hopes for Russia–Ukraine diplomatic talks tempered worries about a persistently tight fuel market. Russia has agreed to resume trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine on a potential peace deal, a development that could eventually boost global fuel supplies.
Moscow also announced that its first diesel shipment of roughly 300,000 barrels will sail to the US on Thursday. Most analysts, however, expect little market impact, noting that the US exports around 1.5 million barrels of diesel per day. At the same time, the US Department of Energy is offering to loan out up to nearly one-third of the 1-million-barrel US emergency heating oil reserve.
On the supply side, EIA data showed that US gasoline inventories fell by almost 3 million barrels in the week ending October 16, erasing previous stock builds and reinforcing concerns about a structurally tight fuel market. Morgan Stanley has cautioned that market conditions may remain tight through mid-2027, as planned refinery outages are set to increase sharply.
