The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate to 15.75% on October 23, 2026, surprising markets that had largely anticipated a 25 bps reduction. The move followed an unexpected quarter-point cut in September and came as annual inflation slowed for the twelfth consecutive month, reaching 9.3%, supported by tight monetary policy and a favorable tenge exchange rate. However, services inflation remained high at 8.9%, underscoring persistent price pressures.
The NBK cautioned that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside, pointing to elevated global energy and food prices, tighter global financial conditions, and strong domestic demand. The economy expanded by 4.2% year-on-year in January–September, driven by construction, manufacturing, and transport, with fiscal stimulus and solid investment continuing to support growth.
The central bank noted that the latest cut maintains moderately tight monetary conditions and signaled that further easing is unlikely before the end of the year. The next policy rate decision is scheduled for December 4.
