The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model estimates that U.S. real GDP growth is running at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to data updated on 29 October 2026. This marks a modest step down from the third quarter of 2026, when the model’s final estimate stood at 3.3%.
While the shift from 3.3% to 3.2% is marginal, it signals that the U.S. economy is maintaining a solid pace of expansion into the end of the year, with only a slight deceleration quarter-on-quarter. The GDPNow estimate, which tracks incoming economic data in real time, will continue to be closely watched by markets and policymakers as they assess the durability of U.S. growth in late 2026.
