FX.co ★ Rupee Rebounds on RBI Support

The Indian rupee firmed to around 94.90 per dollar, rebounding from recent losses as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) measures to manage foreign exchange demand and ease pressure on the currency lent support. The central bank’s special FX window for state-owned oil refiners has curbed their dependence on spot-market dollar purchases, while its FCNR(B) deposit scheme has helped mobilize additional foreign currency inflows. Softer crude oil prices, amid progress in US–Iran negotiations, have also provided some relief to India’s import bill, though ongoing supply risks in the Middle East continue to keep energy costs elevated. At the same time, India could draw fresh foreign portfolio inflows as global investors diversify away from technology-heavy markets on concerns over AI-related spending and stretched valuations. Still, persistent foreign investor outflows, high oil import costs, and firm US Treasury yields remain key headwinds to a sustained rupee recovery.