FX.co ★ Brazil's Central Bank Pauses Rate-Cutting Cycle

Brazil's central bank left the benchmark Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% at its November meeting, interrupting its rate-cutting cycle as deteriorating inflation expectations and growing fiscal pressures cloud the policy outlook. Anticipation of looser public spending is pushing inflation projections further above the 3% target. Copom highlighted that the external environment has turned more challenging, with prolonged conflicts in the Middle East lifting oil and refined fuel prices, and monetary policy in advanced economies remaining tight. Domestically, data released since the previous meeting point to a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity, especially in cyclical sectors. The labor market remains resilient but is beginning to show signs of marginal cooling. At the same time, headline inflation and the average of core inflation measures have risen and remain above the upper limit of the target band. Copom stressed the need for caution in the face of elevated uncertainty.