European natural gas prices fell to €86/MWh on Thursday, extending this week’s losses to about 17% and bringing them to their lowest level in more than three weeks. The downturn reflects growing optimism about diplomatic efforts to resolve the US–Iran conflict, with Qatar continuing to mediate between the two sides.
Market concerns over a further military escalation have also eased following a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. The outcome is seen as potentially giving Democrats greater influence over government spending, which could limit President Trump’s ability to sustain military operations against Iran.
Even so, supply conditions remain tight. LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf continue to face disruptions, and the EU is heading into winter with its lowest gas storage levels in more than a decade. As of November 4, inventories stood at 74.33% of capacity, well below the minimum target of 80%. At the same time, forecasts for lower temperatures across Northwest Europe are expected to lift heating demand, adding further strain to the market.
