The National Bank of Moldova raised its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 11% in November 2026, pushing borrowing costs to their highest level since April 2023. The decision was driven by intensifying inflationary pressures and growing risks to price stability. Headline inflation accelerated to 8.60% in September from 6.96% in August, moving above the upper bound of the central bank’s 5% ±1.5 percentage point target range.
At the same time, domestic demand remained strong: new MDL-denominated loans to individuals increased by 10.5%, retail trade rose by 16.4% in July–August, and remittances from abroad jumped by 26.44% in September. Economic activity also posted solid gains in the third quarter, supported in particular by agriculture and industry.
Looking ahead, inflation is projected to continue rising through the end of 2026 before gradually easing and returning to the target range in the third quarter of 2027. The inflation forecast has been revised upwards, reflecting anticipated adjustments to regulated tariffs and higher fuel prices.
