Crude oil prices rose on Thursday for the first time in four sessions, climbing nearly 3% to about $90.50 a barrel after having slumped more than 8% to a near two-month low in the previous session. Market participants are weighing whether the Democratic Party’s gains in the US midterm elections might improve the outlook for a diplomatic settlement to the dispute with Iran. Tehran is reviewing proposals conveyed via regional intermediaries, though significant differences between Washington and Tehran persist over the terms of any potential deal.
At the same time, shipping risks remain elevated. Since Sunday, at least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf, and threats to commercial traffic continue despite a rebound in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply conditions have improved markedly, with Gulf crude exports recovering toward pre-war levels, albeit at higher transportation costs. Even so, the geopolitical risks surrounding these flows remain unresolved.
