Thailand’s annual inflation rate jumped to 3.9% in October 2026, up from 2.82% in September, surpassing market expectations of 3.33% and moving above the Bank of Thailand’s 1%–3% target range for the first time in more than three years. This was the highest reading since January 2023.
The acceleration was driven primarily by higher oil prices and flood-related increases in food costs, reflecting elevated raw material expenses and the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Core inflation also picked up, rising to 1.58% in October from 1.50% in September, its highest level since May 2023, though it remained slightly below market forecasts of 1.6%.
The Commerce Ministry expects headline inflation to average between 1.8% and 2.2% in 2026, although price pressures are likely to stay elevated through year-end, partly due to base effects from last year’s low comparison levels. Despite the target breach, officials expect the rise in inflation to be temporary, and the Bank of Thailand has kept its policy rate unchanged at 1%, citing subdued domestic demand.
