The annual change in the US CPI for October 2026 was not released with the November 10 data, in line with a prior announcement by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that it would not publish 12‑month percentage changes for any index missing October 2025 data. The absence of data for that month stems from the federal government shutdown, which prevented both the collection and publication of the October 2025 CPI figures.
Ahead of the release, market analysts had anticipated an acceleration in both headline and core inflation, projecting annual rates of 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively, up from 3.7% and 2.6% in September. In contrast, the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Inflation Nowcasting model had indicated more moderate outcomes, with annual headline CPI at 3.7% and core CPI at 2.5%.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, headline inflation slowed to 0.4% in October from 0.6% in September, though it still exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.3%. Core CPI inflation remained unexpectedly steady at 0.3%, likewise surpassing expectations of 0.2%.
